Monthly Archives: November 2020

Bitcoin afkøles i øjeblikket fra et massivt træk til top $ 18.450 den 18. november, og tyremarkeder er traditionelt blevet ispedd store korrektioner. Kunne man danne sig nu?

Siden sit episke skifte til en næsten tre-årig højdepunkt i går, har Bitcoin Profit trukket sig tilbage med omkring 4% til de nuværende priser, der er i $ 17.600-zonen. Det ser ud til at konsolideres her, selvom et andet ben op kunne være nært forestående.

På bagsiden ville en korrektion af rimelig størrelse ikke være ude af spørgsmålet, da tidligere tyrmarkeder oplevede flere 30% plus tilbagetrækninger.

Scenarier til korrektion af Bitcoin

Analytiker og kortlægningsguru Peter Brandt har været i dybden med mulighederne for en stor tilbagetrækning for Bitcoin, som har gjort monumentale 30% siden begyndelsen af ​​november og nået sin højeste markedsværdi nogensinde .

Han erklærede, at der var ni betydelige korrektioner under det sidste tyremarked i 2015 til 2017, hvor gennemsnittet var et fald på 37%.

Under tyremarkedet 2015-2017 i Bitcoin $ BTC var der 9 betydelige korrektioner med følgende gennemsnit:

Den sidste i den aktuelle cyklus var i begyndelsen af ​​september, da BTC kastede sig fra lige under $ 12k ned til lidt over $ 10k på fire dage. Korrektionen på ca. 15% var mindre end halvdelen af ​​det forventede gennemsnit fra tidligere cyklusser, så hvad kan vi forvente af en større?

En tilbagebetaling på 37% fra nuværende niveauer vil sende BTC-priserne tilbage til omkring $ 11.200, men dette er stadig 55% højere end Bitcoin var i begyndelsen af ​​dette år.

Der er også forudsætningen om, at tilbagetrækninger ikke vil være så voldelige i løbet af denne markedscyklus på grund af det faktum, at institutionelle fonde som gråtoner har været påfyldt aktivet, hvilket generelt sænker volatiliteten.

Analytiker og udtænkt af stock-to-flow-modellen ‘PlanB’ sagde, at denne gang vil være meget anderledes, fordi;

”Stor forskel med 2017 er, at de fleste solgte BTC i dag aldrig vil se dagslyset igen, de forsvinder i dyb kølerum. Købere i dag er fagfolk med langvarig vision og udholdenhed. ”

Med forværring af økonomiske problemer og centralbanker, der nedtager fiat-valutaer, er tendensen til at holde fast i et aktiv, der er deflatorisk, stærkt, især for institutioner med langsigtede mål og professionelle investorer, der stadig fylder op .

Hvor skal man på kort sigt?

Bitcoin er gået ned til det 50 timers glidende gennemsnit tre gange i løbet af de sidste to dage, men det konsolideres over det i øjeblikket.

Et større tilbagetog kunne tage det tilbage til støtte omkring $ 16.700-niveauet på kort sigt og en stor korrektion til $ 14.000, hvor det glidende gennemsnit på 50 dage ligger. På hovedet er der meget modstand helt op til den helt høje $ 20k.

Buy at these prices?

Sell now? Wait for the correction? What to do? The environment of greed and FOMO certainly attracts new investors and puts pressure on older ones. We don’t want to buy expensive, but at the same time we don’t want to miss the opportunity in case the correction never comes. Is it a good idea to buy now? Or is it too late?

Bitcoin is a speculative asset.

You have to call a spade a spade. I could use a more noble euphemism, but that would be a self-deception that makes no sense. We can romanticize the issue in a thousand ways. However, deep down we know the truth perfectly. We buy Bitcoin to make money. Yes, the dirty money. What’s the problem with that? We have money and we want to invest it to multiply it. So? We shouldn’t be ashamed of this. The aspiration is perfectly valid. Of course, many feel that we should hide this with a nicer story. “We bought Golden Profit review to change the world. “They’re the heroes in a financial revolution. “We’re going after the banks and the governments. “We are building a better world. How beautiful we are! Bravo, us!

Meanwhile, they are addicted to the swings of the price. And the greed makes us crazy. The phrase “Bitcoin price” is the most popular in this space. The favorite sport of all Bitcoiners is making price predictions. Every time we hear that Bitcoin could one day reach a million dollars, our eyes sparkle with excitement. Revolution or money? Ideology or money?

How much is a Bitcoin worth? How much will it be worth in a year? That’s the key question. What’s the risk? What’s the opportunity? How much money should we put into Bitcoin? What should my strategy be? These are the questions you hear on the street. That’s what people want to know.

Now, how do we value a speculative asset? That is, how do we value an asset with no intrinsic value? In the case of a company or a farm, we would take into account the output of the asset. Income in relation to assets would probably be the most relevant variable in determining the total value of the business in question.

But how do we value a work of art?

An antique? A collectible? There is no income here, because they are non-productive assets. We have to resort to supply and demand. If the item in question has many buyers, the price will surely be high. Otherwise, it won’t be worth much. Note that I am not talking about scarcity. The item may be unique, but without demand, there is no value. That’s in relation to the price.

But how do we determine a good investment? Just because an item is quoted at a high price doesn’t mean it will be a good investment. A Picasso could be selling for $100 million, but that doesn’t mean it will be a good investment. It’s very important that future demand be higher than current demand for it to be a good investment. In other words, growth projections (of demand) must be favorable.

Real estate developers, for example, look at much of the population growth in cities to estimate the future value of their properties. If the population is young, many new people are moving to the city, and vacant lots are not plentiful, it is assumed that real estate prices will eventually increase. The price increase may not happen overnight, but it is only a matter of time. People, sooner or later, get married and want to buy a house. That’s the “future demand”.

What will Bitcoin’s demand look like in the next 5 years – bigger or smaller than it is now? We could begin to estimate this with two factors: demographics and liquidity. The Millennials look very favorably on Bitcoin as a reserve asset (speculative asset), but they don’t have much money to invest yet because of their youth. Of course, this will gradually change over the years. On the other hand, everything seems to indicate that the monetary and fiscal policies of developed countries in the next few years will be inclined towards flexibility. That is, there will be a lot of monetary liquidity due to macroeconomic factors.

Additionally, it is worth noting that the Bitcoin community is growing in infrastructure. In other words, more and more interesting services and products are being developed, which is gradually increasing Bitcoin’s overall appeal. That’s definitely something very positive. It’s now possible to get credit and use Bitcoin as collateral, for example. It’s getting easier and easier to exchange Bitcoin for other assets. In short, the Bitcoin world today is richer than ever.